Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.024438 0.027764 0.031405 0.035690 0.040602 0.046064 0.052606
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.018807 0.023211 0.028468 0.035228 0.043720 0.054070 0.067703
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.015798 0.020594 0.026662 0.034942 0.046005 0.060367 0.080563
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.014124 0.019259 0.026071 0.035834 0.049572 0.068371 0.096312
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.012444 0.017625 0.024781 0.035474 0.051202 0.073724 0.108845
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.011561 0.016950 0.024671 0.036660 0.055028 0.082460 0.127193
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.010192 0.015395 0.023091 0.035446 0.055060 0.085451 0.137001
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.009200 0.014286 0.022033 0.034864 0.055921 0.089697 0.149159
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.008185 0.013030 0.020610 0.033524 0.055370 0.091538 0.157421
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007846 0.012810 0.020792 0.034786 0.059206 0.100973 0.179786
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007532 0.012596 0.020949 0.036000 0.063054 0.110789 0.203966
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007232 0.012372 0.021060 0.037128 0.066838 0.120847 0.229769
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006681 0.011677 0.020318 0.036703 0.067825 0.126040 0.247181
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006193 0.011051 0.019646 0.036340 0.068896 0.131524 0.265928
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005765 0.010495 0.019042 0.036035 0.070024 0.137198 0.285726
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005544 0.010299 0.019081 0.036958 0.073656 0.148220 0.318244
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005179 0.009796 0.018495 0.036586 0.074608 0.153837 0.339652
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005035 0.009708 0.018695 0.037811 0.079001 0.167157 0.380180
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004624 0.009060 0.017740 0.036557 0.077959 0.168594 0.393230
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004321 0.008601 0.017124 0.035955 0.078271 0.173040 0.414015
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003964 0.008007 0.016185 0.034571 0.076690 0.173007 0.423761
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003893 0.007999 0.016461 0.035875 0.081374 0.188023 0.473552
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003819 0.007978 0.016704 0.037129 0.086074 0.203605 0.527043